43 pages • 1 hour read
A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s Hurricanes
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Hurricane
A hurricane is defined as a spiraling storm whose maximum sustained winds reach over 74 mph. They tend to form where the ocean’s upper layer reaches at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Heat energy and moist air fuel the hurricane, which can range in size from tens to thousands of miles in diameter. All hurricanes are characterized by an eye, a calm center, whose wall is surrounded by the strongest winds. The calm weather in the eye has previously fooled populations into thinking the storm is over. The symptoms of a hurricane are “gargantuan waves, mammoth storm surges” and “such diluvial quantities of water that they seem to presage the end of time” (xxii). Hurricanes are mighty forces, with merely average ones releasing the same amount of energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs.
Dolin’s book shows that while hurricanes have some common characteristics, their trajectory and impact are completely unique. How devastating a hurricane is to human populations depends on the natural characteristics of the hurricane, the amount of infrastructure and human inhabitants in its path, and the efficacy of authorities’ preventative measures and aftercare responses.
Saffir-Simpson Scale
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale, which has been used to categorize the scale and severity of hurricanes since the end of the 20th century, is the metric Dolin uses in his book. Hurricanes are ranked from 1-5, with magnitude ascending accordingly. While hurricanes of Category 3 and above are considered major, even less powerful hurricanes can cause huge damage. The difference between a Category 1 hurricane which downs power-lines and small trees, and a 5 which results in “catastrophic damage” that leaves the affected area uninhabitable for months, is considerable, because “as one climbs the hurricane category hierarchy the force of the winds does not increase in a linear fashion; instead it jumps,” as doubling wind speed “does not double the force” of the storm, “but rather quadruples it” (xxv).
The Saffir-Simpson scale, which was pioneered in the 1970s by Herbert S. Saffir and Dr. Robert Homer Simpson replaced the less accurate and specific Beaufort scale, and was a turning-point in how people conceptualized hurricanes. The use of the scale is now so widespread “that it is almost impossible to imagine discussing a hurricane without mentioning its category” (213). The numerical system made it easier for people to understand how dangerous a particular hurricane could be, making preparations easier, and it also gave them an objective measure for comparing different hurricanes. The scale has been instrumental in giving people a sense of confidence and empowerment in the face of these unpredictable storms.
Butterfly Effect
Edward Lorenz’s idea of the butterfly effect was pioneered in a 1972 paper, in which Lorenz posed the question, “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas” and proposed that the answer was that “you can never know; it might or it might not, because the outcome was unpredictable”(197). His idea that minute changes in initial conditions could result in significant changes to future events served to destroy some of the optimism of meteorologists in previous decades, who believed that with increasingly advanced satellites and computer models they would have a foolproof guide to the path of approaching hurricanes. Lorenz’s notion of an ultimately unpredictable relationship between cause and effect showed forecasters that there would always be “clear limits” to improvements in knowledge, as meteorologists had to accept “the limit of predictability” and the fact that “perfect forecasts will never happen,” regardless of how sophisticated the models are (198).
Lorenz’s ideas influenced meteorologists in their decision to use multiple computer models and to “run individual models many different times with different initial conditions to account for our inability to measure exactly what the atmosphere is doing at any moment in time” (198). Meteorologists can thus can assess the accuracy of their findings according to the range between predicted outcomes. The smaller the range, the more accurate the prediction. Thus meteorologists engage in the endeavor of finding a forecast that is as accurate as possible, even as they accept that precision eludes them.
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